Death watch.

A mighty tree has fallen in the Republican foreign policy establishment, senatorial division. Indiana Senator Richard Lugar has publicly broken with Bush's Iraq policy, signaling what may be the leading edge of a much broader exodus amongst rank-and-file G.O.P. lawmakers. Many of these senators and congresspeople are watching the polls and worrying about their prospects for fending off anti-war challengers if this Iraq business doesn't roll to a stop before fall of 2008. Others are probably just sick of hearing about dead and grievously wounded constituents. Dubya, for his part, obviously couldn't care less. In some ways, he's strikingly similar to his predecessor in the White House, at least with respect to his disregard for the health of his party. Oh sure, Bush, Rove, and Tom Delay tried to rig Washington into a G.O.P.-only club, but look where they have brought the party after six years. Pretty much the only thing they have a firm grip on now is the Supreme Court, which can be relied upon to hand down draconian decisions and maybe decide an election in a pinch. That's enough to win... but not to govern.

So... if a mighty tree falls and no one in the White House gives a damn, does it make a sound? We already know the answer to that one. We've seen generals and low-ranking officers turn against this war. We've seen mothers of the slain, conservative "freedom fries" loving congressmen, and the vast majority of the American public turn against it. And yet still it continues, with another 100+ U.S. deaths in June and an appalling number of Iraqis wasted. Absent any willingness on the part of the Congress to use their power of the purse, there is only one locus of power with regard to our overseas military deployment. Bush and Cheney (that hybrid executive-legislative extra-constitutional being) are the only ones who can call it off, and they're not budging before the moving van arrives on January 20, 2008. Their obstinacy is all they have left.

It is remarkable, though, the extent to which they've discredited not only military adventurism (resuscitated temporarily by the Gulf War) but, more generally, the U.S.'s capacity for getting its way in the world. We still have plenty of weight to throw around, make no mistake - both economic and military - but that easy way we had of getting ordinarily compliant governments to line up behind us (or in front of us) is not what it once was. Just this week it was reported that African nations are bridling at the prospect of hosting permanent U.S. bases on the continent to support the Pentagon's new "Africa Command". Even notoriously corrupt western-oriented (i.e. able to be bribed) leaders are afraid that any movement in that direction will provoke an awful backlash from the populace, which trusts neither American power nor the motives behind its application. (Recall that Africa is now a substantial source of petroleum for the U.S.) Russia is off the reservation and Latin America is in open revolt (both are committing the mortal affront of putting their national and regional interests ahead of our own).

So what remains for us, as our congressional leadership sits on its hand, but to watch the empire crumble? I'm sure there are many in the world who feel it's about time.

luv u,

jp