The big why.

There was a lot of noise this week about Iran once again, this in the wake of an IAEA report that raises questions about some aspects of their nuclear program. The occasion prompted appearances on evening news shows of all manner of expert, so long as they share the view that Iran should never, ever be allowed to possess nuclear technology. One "expert" opined that such an eventuality would set off an arms race in the Middle East, prompting Saudi Arabia to get the bomb and so on. Not sure how closely he's been paying attention to his area of expertise, but that train left the station decades ago. Israel has a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons which, though undeclared, has inspired nuclear development programs in Iraq, perhaps Syria, and yes, Iran, if not elsewhere. That is the elephant in the room - the massive destructive power in the hands of a state that has recently and repeatedly attacked its neighbors, and that regularly threatens Iran with air strikes.

This cannot be spoken of, for some reason, at least not in the United States. Somehow when it comes to Israeli foreign policy, we are more Catholic than the Pope, unable to engage in anything close to the kind of lively debate you're likely to hear in Israel itself. Here, all we can talk about is how Amadinejad purportedly wants to destroy Israel. (That's a McCain stump speech staple, for sure.) Thing is, they don't have the ability to carry that out, even if they wished to do so (which I doubt). Whereas Israel, on the other hand, can most certainly obliterate Iran's major population centers, and perhaps the entire country, in a very short period of time. Their threats carry a certain verisimilitude, as do ours. (Recall that our military is well ensconced in the region, with theater nuclear weapons undoubtedly well within reach.) Is anyone really wondering why Iran might want the bomb?

It's the "D" word, friends - deterrent. Our leaders try to suggest that it is inoperative in the post 9/11 world, but I don't think so. Between states, the principle still applies. Iran's leaders have the rudimentary intelligence it takes to see which countries get attacked by the sole remaining superpower and which ones get negotiated with. They don't even need to look beyond the very exclusive club Dubya Bush himself established - the Axis of Evil - for their answer. Nuclear armed Korea, with batteries of conventional artillery massed in preparation for a retaliatory strike on Seoul, was able to cut a deal - no invasion was seriously contemplated. Non-nuclear Iraq, on the other hand, which had abandoned its early-stage atomic weapons program in the early 90s, was attacked, invaded, destroyed, occupied, and buried in corpses. What Bush claimed would be a beacon of freedom in the Middle East is, in fact, a national catastrophe no one will ever wish to emulate. So what lesson should the Iranians - third of three in the Axis - take away from this? Get the bomb... and fast.

One thing seems certain, at least - if Iran is attacked in the coming months, it probably won't be by Olmert... unless the launch codes are buried somewhere in a suitcase stuffed with cash.

luv u,

jp