Amalgaman.

Seems like more than a few people are appalled at what appears to be Obama's recent lurch to the right. Actually, I think some of the stuff he's saying now is more like where he's been politically since walking onto the national stage four years ago. In spite of a lot of the hype about a liberal voting record, the O-Man is no George McGovern (sadly). He's been hugely cautious since becoming a U.S. Senator, and whereas he has the rhetorical gifts to advance progressive positions (particularly ones - like universal health care - that tend to be popular to begin with), he doesn't have those issues deep in his gut. I think this is a textbook case of political relativity. Here's how it works: At the beginning of the election cycle, when there are eight or more members of your party contending for the nomination, there's a fair chance that one of them is going to be somewhere close to your way of thinking. So you might back that person, and if s/he fails to make the first cut, you might look at the remaining contenders for the next best thing. Like... starting with Kucinich and moving to Edwards, because he seems closer to Kucinich than any of the other remaining Dems.

Still with me? Bully! Okay, so say your Edwards drops out, and you're left with the somewhat uninspiring choice of the DLC-powered Hillary Clinton, who voted to authorize Bush's endless war in Iraq (i.e. gave a drunk a loaded bazooka) and Barack Obama, Mr. Ultra-Cautious, who spoke out against the war when he was not in a position to vote on it, and has since voted to fund the war. In that match-up, Obama may feel more like a committed progressive, even if he isn't one. He's just progressive relative to the other remaining candidate (Clinton). Now, as the presumptive Democratic nominee, he stands against McCain, who has been busily burnishing his right-wing credentials (on alternate Tuesdays). This allows Obama to embrace his inner "moderate", and still seem progressive relative to McCain. At the same time, the tendency is for the winning candidate to assume some of the policies of the other contenders, thereby broadening his/her appeal.

So... you end up with this candidate who's an amalgamation of all these other candidates - like someone added them all up and figured the average. As it happens, that ends up being somewhere around where Obama lives politically. What happens next? What the hell am I, Kreskin? Well.... here's my guess (since I asked). Obama will play the muddle in the middle for the next few weeks. Then he'll do something like what Gore did in 2000 - just before the Democratic convention, he'll deliver some firebreathing populist speeches to get the base energized, knock a good one home at the convention, and use that as his basic stump sermon for the rest of the campaign. If he's elected (big if), he'll go back the that middle-ing Amalgaman place before inauguration day. My guess - no guarantees.

Our problem is simply that no candidate in this race is proposing the kind of tectonic policy shift that would be commensurate with the problems we face. That can only come from us. Election day is just the beginning.

luv u,

jp