Out now.

Skipped a week on you. Well, no sweat, friends, because today I'm loaded for bear. And no, it's not just because the Republican party is playing their usual race-baiting, terror-scare election game (no surprise). It's also because our two running wars are politically off the table, or - worse yet - are seen somehow as a stronger issue for that septuagenarian crank McCain, who was dead wrong on Iraq from the beginning and shows every indication of making the same type of error again and again.

I read an Associated Press article the other day that nearly blew the top of my head off. The Bush administration is still negotiating its "security pact" or status of forces agreement with the government of Iraq, of course, and the Iraqi position is that they want the last U.S. troops to leave their country by the end of 2011, unless they request us to stay (and we, of course, agree). Our negotiators are trying to talk them out of it. Why the fuck are they doing that? And why the fuck won't the press and the politicians bring that point up a bit more often? If Iraq wants us out, why disabuse them of that notion?

This should be a problem for McCain. If it hadn't been for him and the administration, our military people (including our National Guard, which never should have been sent there) might have been out of Iraq by now, or at least well on their way. The "surge" is just a stage prop for McCain - it has had little to do with the marginal reduction of violence in Iraq, and a whole lot to do with the scores of Americans and god-knows-how many Iraqis killed since its implementation more than a year ago. Violence is down (not gone) because a) the Mehdi Army is observing a cease fire, b) many Sunni insurgents chose to join the "Awakening Councils" and take the Americans' money rather than continue fighting a civil conflict they were destined to lose, and c) ethnic cleansing in Iraq is substantially complete, with the country (and particularly Baghdad) divided into sectarian enclaves, some walled off from one another. The place is still a tinder box where people fear to wander out of their own neighborhoods and killings occurring at what would be considered a sickening pace anywhere else. (See Juan Cole's blog for daily news out of that sorry country.)

Then there are the refugees - millions of them in Syria and Jordan. Most will likely never return home again. Their neighborhoods have been overrun by partisans of another sectarian group, their homes taken over, their lives threatened. The A.P. ran a story the other day about an Iraqi embassy program in Syria offering a free trip home for refugee families, plus incentives totaling about $1,800 U.S. This past Tuesday they opened a registration center in Damascus - no one showed up. Bupkis. This will be a problem for some time to come, and I suspect these refugee populations will not only strain the resources of the host countries (one of which - Syria - is being scapegoated and strangled by us) but provide a rich breeding ground for future extremists. Perhaps some of Hosni Mubarak's "1000 Bin Ladens" resulting from the Iraq war will be raised in these camps.

Still, McCain assures us that the surge is "working", that victory is at hand, and that a democratic Iraq will reduce Iranian influence. Is he lying or just stupid? Iraq is a majority Shiite country (like Iran) ruled by political parties once exiled in Iran (one of the main coalition parties - the former SCIRI - was formed in Iran). Democracy can only mean closer relations between the two former belligerents. (McCain - if you're confused, ask Lieberman.)

Bottom line, to quote the late great Molly Ivins: Get. Out. Now. Why the hell isn't Obama saying this?

luv u,

jp